Bear Warning

Said one of those skeptical guys,
As the market was hitting new highs:
"The bulls may suppose
The economy grows,
But I doubt that the latter complies."

A Short-Lived Hoax

A group of young hackers from Syria,
Who set off a market hysteria,
Confounded the Street
With a single, fake tweet;
One may ask: were their motives ulteriah?

If their hoax has turned out to conceal
An elaborate insider deal,
They'll have done an offense
For which there's a sense
Of prosecutorial zeal.

They'd have carried it out with impunity
If they'd sunk the financial community,
As there's many a name
That's committed the same
And seems to get off with immunity.

High? What High?

Said a really curmudgeonly guy
On the Dow Jones Industrial high:
"It's still quite a ways
From the Internet craze,
When adjusted for core CPI."

Dow Jones Record High

Despite the new highs in the Dow,
Economists still disavow
The hope that those wishin'
To find a position
Will likely be getting one now.

The stock market's rate of return
Is based on what companies earn.
As long as it's more,
On the stock exchange floor,
Employment's of little concern.

Dow 14,000

The last time around that the Dow
Hit the level it's gotten to now,
The market was brisk
By taking on risk
As much as the law would allow.

In one sense, 14,000 has no significant meaning. You should not buy or sell based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching this level on the way up, or down. It ain't nothin' but a number. In another sense, any sort of round-numbered market milestone affords the opportunity to reflect on how far we've come, or in this case, come back. At the time of the Dow's previous 14,000 milestone in October 2007, the US market and economy were full of financial hubris, if not outright fraud (at least in the mortgage sector), and headed for a great fall.

This time around, the market's climb reflects the slow receding of fear and building of growth, helped along by the Fed's generous monetary stimulus and shunting of savers into riskier asset classes. While it's not a completely beautiful picture, on balance, things seem less likely headed for a fall than last time around.

Is It Just an Expression?

Investors incessantly say:
"Sell in May, and then go away,"
And stock market nerds
Who heeded these words
Are 6% richer today.

Via the FT's Alphaville blog, we learn that May 2012 was a very bad month indeed for US equities:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst month in two years in May. The index fell 6.2 per cent, the largest decline since dropping 7.9 per cent in May 2010 (Wall Street Journal). Closing down 0.23 per cent at 1,310 on Thursday, the S&P 500 had its worst month since last September (Reuters).

A strict observance of the "Sell in May then go away" rule, executed on the first of the month, would therefore have yielded the best results.

Reversal of Fortune, Part I

Said an equity trader named Corso:
"After last week, I certainly swore so
That the Dow was at pains
To give up its gains,
But this week it looks even more so."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day drop for the year to date on Tuesday, falling 213.66 points, or 1.7%, to 12715.93. On the heels of a disappointing, holiday-shortened previous week, that made for a 4% decline over five trading days. After celebrating its best quarter in a decade, it's as if the market paused for reflection, looked around and didn't like what it saw. The Fed seemed to hint last week that no further stimulus would be forthcoming, and the European debt crisis heated up again on Tuesday, with rising Italian and Spanish bond rates reflecting renewed risk fears. Perhaps the rudest shock of all came from China, where we learned that sales of Caterpillar plunged 50% in March, casting doubt on both the company's prospects and the Chinese growth outlook.

Dow 13,000

Whenever an index is bound
For a number exceedingly round,
The luster of Midas
Convinces insiders
It's time that their longs were unwound.

Ah, the enthralling power of round numbers; by itself, the Dow Jones Industrial Index hitting 13,000 for the first time since 2008 means nothing. It is neither fundamental - i.e., indicative of the economic prospects of companies, markets and industries - nor truly technical - i.e., indicative of the patterns of buying and selling behavior in stocks. But it does provide a convenient marker of how far the US stock market has come since its bottom (roughly double), as well as how far it has to go to reach the previous high of 14,164.53, set on Oct. 9, 2007. Still, most of those who make their living in the markets seemed to betray a certain exasperation with the whole hoopla, such as the market strategist who said: "No doubt (the market) has been overbought since the beginning of February, but in a powerful uptrend, price will continue higher for some time amid overbought conditions." Bloomberg's Margaret Brennan may have tweeted it best: "Dow closes above 13,000 for the 1st time since 2008. Can we stop talking about it now?" Now that the limerick is out, sure.

Post Mortem on the Dow's 1000-Point Drop

Said CFTC Chairman Gensler
To Geithner, "Are we among friends, sir?
(I'd like to say how
They whipsawed the Dow,
But I really don't think that I can, sir.)"

Diagnosing the Dow's Dizzy Drop

While coaxing the PIGS from the trough,
Some bankers developed a cough,
Which an I.T. snafu
Turned into swine flu,
And a feverish market sold off.

(Acronym alert: PIGS = Portugal, Italy/Ireland, GREECE and Spain)