US 4th Quarter Growth Forecast

America's merry 4th quarter
Has economists caroling (sorter),
But growth that's depending
On holiday spending's
Reversing again in short order.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a number of economic forecasters have raised their estimates of US 4th quarter growth to a robust 3.5%, compared to average forecast of 2% when the Journal surveyed economists in October. Among other things, consumer sentiment has improved, and shoppers are dipping into savings to make purchases, while companies are replenishing inventories. Of course, using one's savings for consumption is not a sustainable trend, which may be one reason why the forecasts for the 1st quarter of 2012 average only 2.1%.

Black Friday

When consumers queued up in a quorum,
To do as investors implore 'em,
They bought quite a bit
Of Holiday sh*t,
And forgot all their debts and decorum.

It's all over but the counting: Black Friday 2011 will go down as the all-time greatest, as sales rose 6.6% to a record $11.4 billion. Still, the salient facts suggest that, as the Zero Hedge blog put it, we are literally "shopping like there is no tomorrow." Both the savings rate and consumer credit continue to contract, leading one to question the sustainability of our one-day shopping surge. Curiously, the second-best Black Friday on record was that of 2008, suggesting that this day may not correlate to a vibrant US economy.
Meanwhile, the social networking analysis firm Mashwork analyzed 270,000 Black Friday related tweets to predict that:

• The greatest numbers would shop at Wal-Mart and Best Buy;
• 18% of all purchases would be computers or tablets;
• The iPad would outsell the Kindle Fire by 10-1;
• 46% of shoppers would be purchasing for themselves.

Need we say more?  (Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz.)

The Holiday Season Begins

Today retailers wonder suspensefully:
Is Black Friday concluding successfully?
While economists fret,
"We're already in debt;
This business plan doesn't make sense to me!"