Black Friday

When consumers queued up in a quorum,
To do as investors implore 'em,
They bought quite a bit
Of Holiday sh*t,
And forgot all their debts and decorum.

It's all over but the counting: Black Friday 2011 will go down as the all-time greatest, as sales rose 6.6% to a record $11.4 billion. Still, the salient facts suggest that, as the Zero Hedge blog put it, we are literally "shopping like there is no tomorrow." Both the savings rate and consumer credit continue to contract, leading one to question the sustainability of our one-day shopping surge. Curiously, the second-best Black Friday on record was that of 2008, suggesting that this day may not correlate to a vibrant US economy.
Meanwhile, the social networking analysis firm Mashwork analyzed 270,000 Black Friday related tweets to predict that:

• The greatest numbers would shop at Wal-Mart and Best Buy;
• 18% of all purchases would be computers or tablets;
• The iPad would outsell the Kindle Fire by 10-1;
• 46% of shoppers would be purchasing for themselves.

Need we say more?  (Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz.)

Who Falls First?

Economists smartly conversed to,
Of three downturns, determine the worst two:
Those of debt uncontrolled
In the New World and Old,
Or of that which exports to the first two?

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini try to analyze, among Europe, China and the USA, whose economy has it the worst. They note that, in all three cases, "kicking the can down the road has staved off disaster so far, but the cans are getting bigger and heavier." Their unsurprising conclusion is that Europe will fall first and hardest due to the severity of its debt crisis. America and China may not indulge in schadenfreude, however, as both would see their exports to Europe reduced.

The Socialist Mødel

A hotbed of startup activity,
Though socialist in their proclivity,
Norwegians eschew
The American view
That the government crimps productivity.  

Stability helps to ensure
That the av'rage norsk entreprenør
Will see, in their tax,
Not "a weight on our backs,"
But a price that one gets service før.

The bible of American entrepreneurship, Inc Magazine, goes against the grain of US business thinking with a thoughtful look at Norway, where "Startups Say Ja to Socialism."  Challenging the view that lower taxes mean more economic growth, author Max Chafkin looks for the factors underpinning Norway's higher rate of growth and entrepreneurship in comparison to the United States.  As against America's more service-oriented, "can-do" business culture, Scandinavians enjoy the benefits of a more stable, low-risk environment fostered by good-quality healthcare and education as well as pensions paid by the government.  Conclusion: it's not what you pay; it's the value you get in return.

Hat tip (and happy birthday!) to my good friend Michael Griffiths.

The Holiday Season Begins

Today retailers wonder suspensefully:
Is Black Friday concluding successfully?
While economists fret,
"We're already in debt;
This business plan doesn't make sense to me!"