Monday, December 12, 2011

US 4th Quarter Growth Forecast

America's merry 4th quarter
Has economists caroling (sorter),
But growth that's depending
On holiday spending's
Reversing again in short order.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a number of economic forecasters have raised their estimates of US 4th quarter growth to a robust 3.5%, compared to average forecast of 2% when the Journal surveyed economists in October. Among other things, consumer sentiment has improved, and shoppers are dipping into savings to make purchases, while companies are replenishing inventories. Of course, using one's savings for consumption is not a sustainable trend, which may be one reason why the forecasts for the 1st quarter of 2012 average only 2.1%.

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