Safe Investments?

Said a strategist, airing his views
On central bank rumors and news:
"You've booked every gain
And best not retain
Your bonds, which are certain to lose."

Dow 14,000

The last time around that the Dow
Hit the level it's gotten to now,
The market was brisk
By taking on risk
As much as the law would allow.

In one sense, 14,000 has no significant meaning. You should not buy or sell based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching this level on the way up, or down. It ain't nothin' but a number. In another sense, any sort of round-numbered market milestone affords the opportunity to reflect on how far we've come, or in this case, come back. At the time of the Dow's previous 14,000 milestone in October 2007, the US market and economy were full of financial hubris, if not outright fraud (at least in the mortgage sector), and headed for a great fall.

This time around, the market's climb reflects the slow receding of fear and building of growth, helped along by the Fed's generous monetary stimulus and shunting of savers into riskier asset classes. While it's not a completely beautiful picture, on balance, things seem less likely headed for a fall than last time around.

Message from the Fed

"To counter employment fragility,
We promote cheaper funding ability,
But investors who yearn
For a decent return
Must accept more default probability."

The Fed Open Market Committee announced the details of its latest stimulus program on Wednesday, and it's a doozy: under the 3rd round of quantitative easing, the Fed will purchase up to $40 billion a month of mortgage bonds and Treasuries, in addition to its $45 billion of monthly machinations under the Operation Twist program. This massive QE3 intervention is intended to lower long-term interest rates, as the Fed long ago did for short-term rates. Chairman Bernanke and colleagues hope to drive the 10-year T-note, currently yielding 1.75%, back to its July low of 1.38%.

For bond investors, all this rate compression inflames an already acute yield pressure. Those who want to earn an attractive yield must either shift into riskier bonds, or reduce their fixed income allocation in favor of stocks or other more volatile asset classes. As one CIO expressed it to the Wall Street Journal, retail investors "are practically walking around in a daze; they don't know what to do. There is no safe yield out there, so they are redefining what is safe, which is a dangerous thing to do."

The Business of Money

If those who manage and gather it
Were not so quick to slather it
On those who watch and legislate it,
Less so for to regulate it,
Likely there'd be risk in it,
But less than now exists in it,
Regaining public trust in it
When rules are more robust in it.

Last night, Dr. Goose attended a stimulating panel discussion at the Museum of the City of New York entitled: "Can Wall Street Reinvent Itself?" The short answer is that nobody knows, but you can provoke some necessary clear thinking and soul-searching when smart, knowledgable and conscientious people tackle the question. Moderated by NYU financial law professor and retired Lehman investment banker Ronald Filler, the panel included -

• Josh Brown, financial advisor at Fusion Analytics and former broker, author of Backstage Wall Street, blogger at Reformed Broker;
• Heidi N. Moore, New York bureau chief of Marketplace radio and former Wall Street Journal reporter;
• Bill Miller, partner at the Herskovits law firm, providing legal counsel to securities-industry firms, registered persons, whistleblowers and defrauded investors; Forbes contributor, blogger at Broke and Broker.

If there was consensus among the panel, it was that the public's trust is damaged and can only be regained by by an industry structure that rewards working in the client's interest, with simple, strong rules to enforce such behavior.

Banking Bair

Sheila Bair, no longer at leisure,
Said: "The banks have collective amnesia,
As they're not really fit
For the capital hit
That would come with the next global seizure."

Former FDIC head Sheila Bair has come out of semi-retirement to head a new watchdog group, the Systemic Risk Council. Backed by the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Council will monitor and encourage financial regulatory reform. In an interview with Kai Ryssdal of Marketplace, Ms. Bair voices concern that the major banks have forgotten the lessons of the financial crisis, and spend more time trying to water down reforms than strengthening themselves for the next crash. In a related piece, Marketplace's Heidi Moore explains that the major US banks alone require $500 billion of additional capital to withstand a major shock. In this, America is just the tip of the iceberg, as the greatest global systemic risk lies with banks in Europe and Japan.

A Facebook Underwriter's Confession

"Before I'd put retirees in 'em,
I've got to confess my unease in 'em;
The shares would be splendid
If they were still friended
In one or two months, just to season 'em."

Facebook has finally priced its IPO at $38 a share, valuing the social networking company at $104 billion. The global frenzy for $FB was so great in the weeks leading up to the initial pricing that US demand alone would have bought 30 times the 421 million shares on offer. Under such circumstances, a double-digit "pop" in the price is to be expected on the first day of trading, and those who did not count themselves among the fortunate few to receive allocations of IPO shares had better wait for the hysteria to die down before "liking" Facebook stock with their retirement savings.

Betting One's Hedges

There's a false sense of immunization
In many a hedge operation;
Positions one places
On ill-conceived bases
May end up as wild speculation.

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stunned investors on Thursday with the announcement of a $2 billion trading loss in the bank's risk management unit. Some reacted with schadenfreude, in view of Mr. Dimon's previously dismissive attitude toward reports of the firm's massive credit default swap positions. The Chief Investment Office's head trader, Bruno Michel Iksil, had been dubbed "the London Whale" for his huge, market-distorting CDS bets on the so-called CDX IG 9 index of the credit risk of 125 companies. Mr. Iksil sold protection on the index during the first quarter, essentially writing an insurance policy that the indexed companies' credit would not deteriorate.

Based on his limited knowledge of this case, Dr. Goose is at a loss to explain how the selling of credit protection constitutes a risk management function for a bank (one would sooner expect them to be buying credit protection). Nevertheless, even the most well-intentioned hedge position can go awry if the underlying assumptions do not hold, and many a "hedge" entered into on the basis of a particular market outcome is just speculation by another name.

Groupon's Risky Business

Said a source who implored not to quote 'im:
"Selling coupons? There's risk to promote 'em.
If one's merchants one pre-funds,
But buyers want refunds,
Well then, they've got one by the scrotum."

Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN), the discount coupon provider that went public in a social media frenzy last November, recently shocked investors with the disclosure that its fourth-quarter results had to be restated downward. Reuters financial commentator/blogger Felix Salmon explains: "In the US, Groupon sells a bunch of deals for a given merchant, gets lots of revenue as a result, keeps roughly half that revenue for itself, and then passes on the other half to the merchant in question." This policy engenders significant risk because of the company's unconditional refund policy. Says Salmon: "That policy is good business for Groupon: it gives people a lot of confidence to buy a Groupon for merchants who might otherwise seem a bit sketchy. But it also creates dangers, because if Groupon does a deal with a sketchy merchant, then Groupon can be on the hook for a lot of refunds." It turns out also that Groupon's customers tend to demand refunds on big-ticket items more frequently, and the company did not plan for this when it began selling pricier products and services.

All this has led to the downward revision of 4th quarter net income by $22.6 million. Groupon had to make an embarrassing SEC filing, and the shares were down 17% on Friday. Says accounting expert Francine McKenna: "They just need to get their act together."

Cold Water on Lotto Fever

The lotto's a game of slim chances,
Though the jackpot immense at first glance is;
Of the fortunate few
Whose numbers come through,
Most end up in bankrupt finances.

With a record-setting $540 million jackpot up for grabs on Friday night, the Mega Millions game has given the country lotto fever. However, the cold fact is that nine out of ten lotto winners squander their prize in five years or less. CBS Moneywatch editor Jill Schlesinger has advice for those who feel lucky tonight: if, against impossible odds, you actually win, keep the news to yourself while you carefully hire an accountant, lawyer and financial advisor to help you work out a sustainable plan for your incredible windfall. Remember, the prize is always less than it sounds; the after-tax, lump-sum value will likely work out to half of the stated jackpot amount. Moreover, if you want it to last, you've got to leave most of it invested and live on the earnings. The bottom line is, if you can live on the $10 million or so annual earnings that the $540 million nest egg might throw off after taxes, then you, your new-found friends and your long-lost cousins will live happily ever after.
Hat tip to Tess Vigeland of Marketplace Money.

Time To Invest?

Said a broker, in recommendation,
At a client's undue hesitation:
"Throughout time, we deduct,
Sh^t has always been f#cked;
Pray be bold in your risk allocation."

In times like these, after a prolonged economic slump, isolated indicators may offer glimmers of hope; an improving jobs number here, more manufacturing there. And yet, the economy as a whole is not clearly improving. At such times, investors may become paralyzed by the conflicting data, waiting for all the stars to align and thereby missing a rocket launch to the moon. Investors may need the equivalent of a "snap out of it!" delivered with a bracing slap. Here to meet this pressing need is Joshua Brown, the investment advisor and blogger known as the "Reformed Broker". Urging investors to "Get Your Shit Together," Mr. Brown says:

I have no idea when this secular bear market and the attendant economic malaise will truly be over - but I know for a fact that if you're not planning for its end you're going to miss your chance.

Those M*F* Risk Controls

A risk manager, naturally prone
To deny an improvident loan,
Heard the boss say: "We're wishin'
To cut this position;
Not that of the loan, but your own."

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Chief Risk Officer of MF Global found himself out of a job after he questioned that firm's big bet on European bonds, arranged by CEO Jon Corzine (pictured). CRO Michael Roseman had argued that the "repo to maturity" trades - in essence, leveraged long bets on treasury bonds of Italy and other sovereigns - could endanger the firm's capital if markets went strongly against them. Both privately and in front of the MF Global board, Mr. Corzine had responded that Mr. Roseman's dire scenarios were unlikely or even impossible. Eventually, Mr. Corzine is said to have grown annoyed with the CRO's persistence; whatever the reason, Mr. Roseman soon found himself assisting in the transition to his successor. Of course, soon afterward, his impossibly dire scenarios came true and the firm was bankrupt.

Overheard in the MF Global Accounting Dept.

"In the annals of shame and ignominy
Of the modern financial economy,
A transgression may start
With a loss on the part
Of a sure-fire thing, not uncommonly."

The New York Times reports that the notorious $600 million of MF Global customers' funds "may no longer be simply missing. It may be gone." Regulators and FBI agents who have worked around the clock to recover the funds now believe that they were used not to margin customers' trades, but to pay off the firm's trading losses. Futures brokers routinely use customers' cash to earn income for themselves, but always back such operations with collateral such as Treasury notes. MF Global now appears to have used up this buffer and simply taken the cash to plug the gaps in its can't-miss $6.3 billion European bond position. This is a shock to the futures trading community, which up to now has believed that its deposits were safely segregated.

MF = Money is Fungible

Said the Feds, in a stern admonition,
At a broker's insolvent petition:
"We place our reliance
That money of clients
Is far from your trading position."

Commodity broker MF Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Monday, after weekend in talks with potential acquirers fell through. Due diligence inquiries revealed a $900 million discrepancy in the amount of customer funds on hand, inviting due diligence of a different sort from the FBI. The case of MF Global, in which leveraged bets on European sovereign bonds did not turn out as hoped, highlights once again the necessity of the industry's avowedly strict segregation of customer funds. Clients may be wiped out, but only because of their own bad bets. Against those of the firm, they are federally insured.

Uninsurable Irene

In many a coastal locality
There's a state-run insurance modality,
Though critics insist
That in lowering risk,
The hazard is one of morality.

As Hurricane Irene bears down upon the U.S. East Coast, millions of households are making last-minute checks: food and supplies, evacuation plans… and homeowner’s insurance. The Wall Street Journal reports that 677,000 households in Irene’s path live in coastal areas considered too risky by private insurers, and are therefore covered by state-sponsored “insurers of last resort.” Insurance pools such as the North Carolina Beach Plan have $196 billion total exposure. Should an especially severe storm exhaust their resources, they will draw on both reinsurance and privately insured state residents to cover any shortfall. Therein lies the Moral Hazard: by spreading the risk of living in hurricane-prone areas, the states end up encouraging more construction in harm’s way and increasing the overall financial risk of natural disaster.

Weekend Worriers

Whenever a bombshell discloses
After Wall Street on Friday night closes,
The market is fraught
All weekend with what
The chance of new highs or new lows is.

Listening to the weekend's feverish speculation as to the market effect of the S&P downgrade of US sovereign debt, one could not help but hark back to the Lehman failure in 2008, when the world waited breathlessly for the Asian markets to open and point to our global economic fate. Early results this time around indicate a sharp sell-off of anything risky, though not necessarily US Treasury bonds themselves, the risk perception of which has not really changed.

We Never Learn

Said an analyst: "Risk, from where I sit,
Is consistent, however you slice it,
And our colleagues in banking,
For profit or ranking,
Consistently still underprice it."

Investment manager and commentator Barry Ritholtz, frustrated by the events unfolding between Greece and its creditors, poses the thoughtful question: "Who the f--- would lend a dime to these people?" In a rant posted on his blog, Mr. Ritholtz asserts that lenders are to blame when borrowers default for reasons that were well-known when the deal was done. We agree, but bankers themselves know that competition and the search for yield will, time and again, lead them to underprice risk, or wish it away.

Shaken to the Core

While reading of quakes and reactors,
One ponders the many risk factors
Of God and of man,
And how much one can plan
To mitigate all these impactors.  

The earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear accidents in Japan have renewed the debate on the trade-offs of risks and benefits: radiation dangers vs. energy independence, safety vs. costs, catastrophic risk vs. financial risk.  Odds are that the optimal choice will comprise a disciplined vigilance toward those things that we can control, and a calm acceptance of those we cannot.

It is within all of us to help the victims of this and other disasters, and here are some ways to do so, courtesy of Yahoo.

DeLong-Awaited Confession

Said a chastened Professor DeLong,
"This admission I cannot prolong:
When I held that the banks
Knew the risks in their ranks,
I was ruefully, woefully wrong."

From the American Economic Association 2011 annual meeting: UC Berkeley economics professor (and former Treasury official) Brad DeLong, leading off a panel on "What's Wrong (and Right) With Economics," offered a list of "The Things I Believed Before the Financial Crisis That Turned Out Not to be True." First among them: "That the Highly-Leveraged Banks Had Control Over Their Risks."

Inception

Risk management has a routine
To anticipate drift from the mean,
But wise risk advisors
May dream of surprises
Unimagined, unknown, unforeseen.

It's All Relative

The US isn't having its best year,
But the world hasn't ceased to invest here;
Since Europe is weaker,
A typical seeker
Of safety may feel not as stressed here.