The experts' opinions diverge
On whether to taper or surge;
You may go to your death
While holding your breath
For consensus to fin'lly emerge.
Over the last day I read a couple of thought-provoking essays on the nature of economic expertise, and how to take the expert opinions we are constantly reading. The Guardian's US finance & economics editor Heidi Moore reminds us that it's as much of an art as a science. Says Ms. Moore: "Here's the problem: Even the experts don't agree on where the economy has gone. Some believe it's improving. Some believe the evidence is thin." Of course, "the economy" is big and complex, so it's no wonder.
Economist Chris House, in his Order Statistics blog, points out that even Nobel laureates may have true expertise in only a narrow field, so one must keep that in mind when listening to an international trade expert expounding on, say, behavioral finance.
Let the reader beware!
Heidi Moore (The Guardian): Rumors, the US Economy & 2014: What You Need to Know http://www.theguardian.com/money/us-money-blog/2014/jan/29/us-economy-state-rumors-federal-reserve
Chris House (Order Statistic blog): The Wisdom of Laureates http://orderstatistic.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/the-wisdom-of-laureates/?utm_content=buffer82a4d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer