Wednesday, May 2, 2012

So-So Employment Consensus

The employment report's understood
To say the economy could
Adroitly provide ways
To move along sideways,
But not ever get any good.

The ADP Employment Report will be released Wednesday morning at 8:15 and, though hotly anticipated, is not expected to be so hot. As shown in the graph, the disastrous employment losses of 2008-2009 have reversed and begun to recover, but not at a rate that would bring back full employment. The economists' consensus is for a gain of 183,000 jobs in April, down from the 209,000 increase in March. So-so, and trending lower. There is a possible upside surprise, though: Tuesday's better-than-expected ISM manufacturing survey, as well as recent regional surveys, point towards manufacturing job creation exceeding expectations.

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